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We show that South African SRWs underwent a dramatic northward shift, and diversification, in foraging strategy from 1990s to 2010s. Bayesian mixing model results suggest that during the 1990s, South African SRWs foraged on prey isotopically similar to South Georgia/Islas Georgias del Sur krill. In contrast, in the 2010s, South African SRWs foraged on prey isotopically consistent with the waters of the Subtropical Convergence, Polar Front and Marion Island. We hypothesize that this shift represents a response to changes in preferred habitat or prey, for example, the decrease in abundance and southward range contraction of Antarctic krill. By linking reproductive decline to changing foraging strategies for the first time in SRWs, we show that altering foraging strategies may not be sufficient to adapt to a changing ocean.The early detection of congenital anomaly epidemics occurs when comparing current with previous frequencies in the same population. The success of epidemiologic surveillance depends on numerous factors, including the accuracy of the rates available in the base period, wide population coverage, and short periodicity of analysis. This study aims to describe the Latin American network of congenital malformation surveillance ReLAMC, created to increase epidemiologic surveillance in Latin America. We describe the main steps, tasks, strategies used, and preliminary results. From 2017 to 2019, five national registries (Argentina [RENAC], Brazil [SINASC/SIM-BRS], Chile [RENACH], Costa Rica [CREC], Paraguay [RENADECOPY-PNPDC]), six regional registries (Bogotá [PVSDC-Bogota], Cali [PVSDC-Cali], Maule [RRMC SSM], Nicaragua [SVDC], Nuevo-León [ReDeCon HU], São Paulo [SINASC/SIM-MSP]) and the ECLAMC hospital network sent data to ReLAMC on a total population of 9,152,674 births, with a total of 101,749 malformed newborns (1.1%; 95% CI 1.10-1.12). Of the 9,000,651 births in countries covering both live and stillbirths, 88,881 were stillborn (0.99%; 95% CI 0.98-0.99), and among stillborns, 6,755 were malformed (7.61%; 95% CI 7.44-7.79). The microcephaly rate was 2.45 per 10,000 births (95% CI 2.35-2.55), hydrocephaly 3.03 (2.92-3.14), spina bifida 2.89 (2.78-3.00), congenital heart defects 15.53 (15.27-15.79), cleft lip 2.02 (1.93-2.11), cleft palate and lip 2.77 (2.66-2.88), talipes 2.56 (2.46-2.67), conjoined twins 0.16 (0.14-0.19), and Down syndrome 5.33 (5.18-5.48). Each congenital anomaly showed heterogeneity in prevalence rates among registries. The harmonization of data in relation to operational differences between registries is the next step in developing the common ReLAMC database.We investigated the optimal combinations of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) levels for lowest mortality in participants not taking hypertensive medication at the study baseline using nationwide representative databases. Survival rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox regression analyses. The discriminatory ability for clinical outcomes was assessed by Harrell’s C-index analysis. selleck chemicals A survival spline curve was presented, and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was performed. SBP ≥ 140 group and DBP ≥ 90 group had the highest risk of mortality. Within SBP less then 120, the HR (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality (ACM) was the lowest for DBP 70-79. Within SBP 120-139, the HR (95% CIs) for ACM was significantly lower for DBP 70-79. Within SBP ≥ 140, the HR (95% CIs) for ACM was significantly lower for DBP 80-89. Conversely, within SBP ≥ 140, DBP less then 70 showed the highest risk for ACM. Similar relationships were observed when survival spline curves and CART analysis were used. The combination of SBP and DBP discriminated better than SBP or DBP alone for mortality. The effect of DBP on mortality varies according to the SBP range. It is more effective to evaluate the effect of SBP and DBP jointly for clinical outcomes.Therapy optimization remains an important challenge in the treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We investigated tumor size (sum of the longest diameters (SLD) of target lesions) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as longitudinal biomarkers for survival prediction. Data sets from 335 patients with NSCLC from study NCT02087423 and 202 patients with NSCLC from study NCT01693562 of durvalumab were used for model qualification and validation, respectively. Nonlinear Bayesian joint models were designed to assess the impact of longitudinal measurements of SLD and NLR on patient subgrouping (by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors 1.1 criteria at 3 months after therapy start), long-term survival, and precision of survival predictions. Various validation scenarios were investigated. We determined a more distinct patient subgrouping and a substantial increase in the precision of survival estimates after the incorporation of longitudinal measurements. The highest performance was achieved using a multivariate SLD and NLR model, which enabled predictions of NSCLC clinical outcomes.

To maintain the frequency of going out and to improve homebound status among older adults, specific barriers need to be identified. Hence, this study developed a scale to measure barriers to going out.

A preliminary study was carried out to collect items for the scale. We conducted semi-structured interviews with five homebound older adults, and created 14 items as a draft barrier scale. The main study included 2273 older adults and their cohabitating family members in rural Japan. For older adults, the questions included demographic characteristics, responses to the draft scale and variables to examine its validity. For family members, the questions included demographic characteristics, their relationship with the older adult and their assessment of their older relative’s willingness to go out. We used data from 892 pairs for our analysis.

We selected nine items through the criterion group strategy, and confirmed the unidimensional structure of the scale through factor analysis. The results showed significant relationships between the scale and older adults’ self-efficacy about going out, their health locus of control, the frequency of going out and their reluctance to go out as assessed by family members. We carried out a receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine the scale’s cut-off point. Our multivariate analysis showed that the scale had a significantly stronger association with homebound status than with other variables.

We developed a highly reliable and valid scale on barriers to going out among community-dwelling older adults and confirmed its usability. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21 238-244.

We developed a highly reliable and valid scale on barriers to going out among community-dwelling older adults and confirmed its usability. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21 238-244.