Activiteit

Active labour market policy will need to be front and centre.The COVID-19 emergency has had a dramatic impact on market incomes and income support policies. The lack of timely available data constrains the estimation of the scale and direction of recent changes in the income distribution, which in turn constrain policymakers seeking to monitor such developments. We overcome the lack of data by proposing a dynamic calibrated microsimulation approach to generate counterfactual income distributions as a function of more timely external data than is available in dated income surveys. We combine nowcasting methods using publicly available data and a household income generation model to perform the first calibrated simulation based upon actual data aiming to assess the distributional implications of the COVID-19 crisis in Ireland. AG-14361 Overall, we find that the crisis had an equalizing real-time effect for both gross and disposable incomes, notwithstanding the significant hardship experienced by many households. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.The lockdown measures that were implemented in the spring of 2020 to stop the spread of Covid-19 are having a huge impact on economies in the UK and around the world. In addition to the direct impact of Covid-19 on health, the following recession will have an impact on people’s health outcomes. This paper reviews economic literature on the longer run health impacts of business cycle fluctuations and recessions. Previous studies show that an economic downturn, which affects people through increased unemployment, lower incomes and increased uncertainty, will have significant consequences on people’s health outcomes both in the short and longer term. The health effects caused by these adverse macroeconomic conditions will be complex, and will differ across generations, regions and socioeconomic groups. Groups that are vulnerable to poor health are likely to be hit hardest even if the crisis hit all individuals equally, and we already see that some groups such as young workers and women are worse hit by the recession than others. Government policies during and after the pandemic will play an important role in determining the eventual health consequences. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.The coronavirus pandemic has had huge impacts on the National Health Service (NHS). Patients suffering from the illness have placed unprecedented demands on acute care, particularly on Intensive Care Units (ICUs). This has led to an effort to dramatically increase the resources available to NHS hospitals in treating these patients, involving re-organisation of hospital facilities, redeployment of existing staff and a drive to bring in recently retired and newly graduated staff to fight the pandemic. These increases in demand and changes to supply have had large knock-on effects on the care provided to the wider population. This paper discusses likely implications for healthcare delivery in the short and medium term of the responses to the coronavirus pandemic, focusing primarily on the implications for non-coronavirus patients. Patterns of past care suggest those most likely to be affected by these disruptions will be older individuals and those living in more deprived areas, potentially exacerbating pre-existing health inequalities. Effects are likely to persist into the longer-run, with particular challenges around recruitment and ongoing staff shortages. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.The spread of COVID-19, and international measures to contain it, are having a major impact on economic activity in the UK. In this paper we describe how this impact has varied across industries using data on share prices of firms listed on the London Stock Exchange, and how well targeted government support for workers and companies is in light of this. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.The economic and public health crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic is exposing existing inequalities between ethnic groups in England and Wales, as well as creating new ones. We draw on current mortality and case data, alongside pre-crisis labour force data to investigate the relative vulnerability of different ethnic groups to adverse health and economic impacts. After accounting for differences in population structure and regional concentration, we show that most minority groups have suffered excess mortality compared to the white British majority group. Differences in underlying health conditions such as diabetes may play a role; so too may occupational exposure to the virus, given the very different labour market profiles of ethnic groups. Distinctive patterns of occupational concentration also highlight the vulnerability of some groups to the economic consequences of social distancing measures, with Bangladeshi and Pakistani men particularly likely to be employed in occupations directly affected by the UK’s ‘lockdown’. We show that differences in household structures and inequalities in access to savings mean that a number of minority groups are also less likely to be able to weather short-term shocks to their income. Documenting these immediate consequences of the crisis reveals the potential for inequalities to become entrenched in the longer term. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.The spread of COVID-19 has led to sweeping changes in the way households work, spend their time and shop resulting in different shopping patterns and rapid price changes in some goods. How will changes such as these be reflected in headline inflation measures such as the Consumer Prices Index (CPI)? This paper discusses problems in interpreting the CPI as a measure of how the cost of living is changing during the lockdown. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.In this paper, the problem of social distancing in the spread of infectious diseases in the human network is extended by optimal control and differential game approaches. Hear, SEAIR model on simulation network is used. Total costs for both approaches are formulated as objective functions. SEAIR dynamics for group k that contacts with k individuals including susceptible, exposed, asymptomatically infected, symptomatically infected and improved or safe individuals is modeled. A novel random model including the concept of social distancing and relative risk of infection using Markov process is proposed. For each group, an aggregate investment is derived and computed using adjoint equations and maximum principle. Results show that for each group, investments in the differential game are less than investments in an optimal control approach. Although individuals’ participation in investment for social distancing causes to reduce the epidemic cost, the epidemic cost according to the second approach is too much less than the first approach.